MarketsStatsReferralAboutPredict the
Next Rug
or Run
Binary prediction markets on Bags-launched memecoins. Bet on Rug (price drops ≥80%) or Run (survives). Native SOL, CPMM AMM, zero platform rake.
Why it matters
Memecoin launches generate the most intense directional conviction in crypto, and the least infrastructure to express it. Rug-or-Run turns that conviction into a tradable, continuous market — with a public trade feed that doubles as a whale-signal aggregator for the Bags ecosystem.
What's different
- Real AMM, not parimutuel. CPMM (x·y=k), continuous P&L, exit before resolution. No "locked until settlement" UX tax.
- Creative fee-sharing (50 bps split). Every trade routes fees four ways:
- 25 bps → LPs (retained in pool)
- 10 bps → token creators — proportional to Bags royalty. Each creator wallet is rent-checked before payout; skipped shares collapse to the trader, so trades never fail on unfunded Bags-auto-markets.
- 10 bps → referrer (permanent binding, self-referral rejected on-chain)
- 5 bps → buyback wallet — accumulates SOL for discretionary $ROR buybacks by the founder after token launch. When no referrer is bound, the referral 10 bps folds in (up to 15 bps per trade).
Unbound buckets merge into the buyback wallet — no SOL ever stranded.
- Full-collateral invariant. 1 SOL always mints 1 RUG + 1 RUN. Vault solvency is provable at any slot.
- Zero platform rake. We take nothing. The 50 bps are the full fee schedule.
How it works
Market opens
Oracle detects a Bags launch, captures initial price, and opens a 30-min market.
Buy RUG or RUN
Swap SOL into your chosen side on the CPMM pool. Exit anytime before resolution.
Price check
At expiry, oracle posts final_price. RUG wins if price ≤ 20% of initial; otherwise RUN.
Claim 1:1
Winning-side tokens redeem 1:1 for SOL. LPs claim proportional share of the winning reserve.
Redemption window
Winners and LPs have 30 days after resolution to redeem. Past that window, an admin-signed close_market closes the market's on-chain accounts and sweeps rent plus any unclaimed SOL to a separate forfeit wallet — not the admin hot signer.
This is a clawback on abandoned funds after 30 days, not a fee on active trades. The 0% platform-rake commitment is unchanged for anything inside the window. The recipient wallet is hardcoded on chain and every close emits a public MarketClosed event for audit.
Bags integration
Meaningful, not cosmetic.
Oracle uses @bagsfm/bags-sdk to discover launches (PRE_GRAD + MIGRATED), auto-creating markets on tokens with 24h volume ≥ $10k.
create_market caches getTokenCreators on-chain per market — every subsequent trade knows exactly who to pay without re-fetching.
Frontend hydrates token identity (name, logo, creator) from Bags via a server-side proxy route, with DexScreener fallback per-field if Bags returns partial metadata.
Every market card links back to its bags.fm/{mint} page.
Try it in 60 seconds
- 1.Open the app — Phantom / Solflare / Backpack supported.
- 2.Switch wallet to devnet. Get test SOL: faucet.solana.com.
- 3.Pick any active market, open the Trade panel, buy RUG or RUN (default 0.05 SOL).
- 4.Come back before expiry → sell for continuous P&L, or hold through resolution and redeem 1:1 if your side wins.
- 5.Visit /stats for global activity, /referral to bind a referrer and share your link.